This week has been a significant turning point in the Republican primaries. There will likely be more turning points. I watched the turning point in action this week: the two South Carolina debates, Monday and Thursday nights. Gingrich triumphed. Romney faced pestering about his association with Bain and then about releasing his tax returns. He appeared irresolute and weak, indecisive, even flustered. Had he not expected these questions and prepared sharp answers? On the other hand, just before the Thursday debate, Newt was side-swiped by his ex-wife's claim that he had asked for "an open marriage." When questioned on this, Newt attacked the questioner and the liberal media, displaying decisiveness, courage, even hutzpah. He was given a standing ovation by the huge crowd. Previously on Monday night, Gingrich had a number of punchy, incisive lines that struck home to the listeners, while Romney fiddled. Their main differences are in style and character, not favored policies.
The nomination has been Romney's to lose. It probably still is, as he has huge funding and wide support (although he has been dropping sharply in most recent polls). He may have thought that a bland, "do not rock the boat" approach would suffice. Perhaps it would work against Obama, but not in the primaries with Gingrich in the race. Newt is incendiary, but also politically astute and very sharp, with considerable knowledge of history and politics. Yes, he is "erratic," as Santorum charged last evening in the debate, but that very quality contrasts with Romney's safe blandness.
My present guess is that South Carolina will end Santorum's campaign, and that Ron Paul will remain off on the side, appealing mainly to the very young (politically naive, fervent) and to libertarians. Hence, for the Florida primary of 31 January, Romney will be more directly paired against Gingrich. Romney has had a huge lead, and has strong appeal to the elderly and more moderate voters. If not in Florida, at least in coming primaries, if he wants to win the nomination, Romney will have to change his style, and show more command, more political courage, more decisiveness. Ironically, Romney is like Obama in the smooth, no-ruffle style as a public persona. Gingrich is utterly different: brash, aggressive, even nasty. And often refreshing, and humorous. My political guess is that either Romney becomes more aggressive and much more decisive, in effect learning from Gingrich, or he will not get the nomination. Why? Republicans not only want to win back the Presidency, but they want to elect a leader, not a "stuffed shirt," as one of the candidates (Perry?) called Romney. Surely Willard Romney has some very good qualities, but until he rolls up his sleeves and shows some real fight, an increasing number of voters may well turn from him. Or so it seems to me.
O Fortuna!
The nomination has been Romney's to lose. It probably still is, as he has huge funding and wide support (although he has been dropping sharply in most recent polls). He may have thought that a bland, "do not rock the boat" approach would suffice. Perhaps it would work against Obama, but not in the primaries with Gingrich in the race. Newt is incendiary, but also politically astute and very sharp, with considerable knowledge of history and politics. Yes, he is "erratic," as Santorum charged last evening in the debate, but that very quality contrasts with Romney's safe blandness.
My present guess is that South Carolina will end Santorum's campaign, and that Ron Paul will remain off on the side, appealing mainly to the very young (politically naive, fervent) and to libertarians. Hence, for the Florida primary of 31 January, Romney will be more directly paired against Gingrich. Romney has had a huge lead, and has strong appeal to the elderly and more moderate voters. If not in Florida, at least in coming primaries, if he wants to win the nomination, Romney will have to change his style, and show more command, more political courage, more decisiveness. Ironically, Romney is like Obama in the smooth, no-ruffle style as a public persona. Gingrich is utterly different: brash, aggressive, even nasty. And often refreshing, and humorous. My political guess is that either Romney becomes more aggressive and much more decisive, in effect learning from Gingrich, or he will not get the nomination. Why? Republicans not only want to win back the Presidency, but they want to elect a leader, not a "stuffed shirt," as one of the candidates (Perry?) called Romney. Surely Willard Romney has some very good qualities, but until he rolls up his sleeves and shows some real fight, an increasing number of voters may well turn from him. Or so it seems to me.
O Fortuna!
